Consumers are demanding more information and entertainment from their vehicles, as well as increased safety, economy, and environmental responsibility. This is spurring the manufacturing of 'intelligent' vehicles -- cars and trucks that use electronics to provide greater assistance with navigation, and provide more information about the vehicle, its environment and connectivity. Technologies that will have a growing presence in vehicles by 2020 include telematics, including remote vehicle prognostics and active safety (capabilities that sense and respond to driving behaviors and road conditions); a wide array of entertainment choices such as data downloads and streaming media; and power train innovations.
Consumers will benefit from connectivity between their vehicles and other vehicles as well as road infrastructure. Information captured from breaking patterns -- for example, from vehicles approaching a recent accident -- will be transmitted to other vehicles. Alternate routing options delivered dynamically will help consumers avoid congestion and delays, and active safety features will enable crash avoidance.
Alternative power will see continued innovation that extends far beyond 2020, with hybridisation and battery technology leading the drive toward environmentally sustainable transportation.
Micro, mild and full hybridisation are currently undergoing extensive development today, and study participants believe strongly that by 2020 all new vehicles will have some level of hybridisation.
Hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles will remain a viable alternative, but projections put only a small fraction of vehicle production migrating to this technology by 2020, due to cost-prohibitive processes and new infrastructures. Bio-fuels will also see their share of investments, and non-food-based bio-fuels will grow.
As consumers continue to become better informed and more demanding, they will drive transformation in the current purchasing model for vehicles. The study concludes that consumers will expect to purchase or lease a vehicle that comes with flexible access to a diverse 'garage' of vehicles.
In the current model, consumers are often restricted by finances and buy a compromise vehicle, or they buy a car with features that don't get used. In the new model, consumers will drive a primary vehicle that best meets their daily needs, and have the option to change to a different model, as needed. For example, someone may drive a small, fuel-efficient vehicle during the week, but have access to a sport utility vehicle for a weekend ski trip or a luxury sedan to attend a wedding.
"Basic transportation will no longer be enough for increasingly empowered consumers. They want an automotive experience that matches their lifestyles and lets them move seamlessly from life inside the vehicle to their world outside," said Sanjay Rishi, vice president and global automotive industry leader, IBM.
Based on the Automotive 2020 study and related research, IBM has defined five imperatives that are likely to distinguish the outperformers in the automotive world of 2020: Auto companies must embrace new mobility models; auto companies and dealers will need to find new ways to connect with sophisticated consumers and develop a new value proposition for dealerships; as vehicles become more connected and intelligent, their electronics and embedded software become more complex. IBM recommends that OEMs establish common processes, and standards so to enable innovations from traditional and non-traditional suppliers to be rapidly integrated.
To address the increasing cost of innovation, companies need to widen their enterprise innovation networks and extend the partnering concept to go beyond the current suppliers. OEMs and suppliers should create balanced, flexible operations aligned with local economies while having a positive social impact wherever business is done.
"In the face of such significant and chaotic change, finding clarity will require the automotive industry to take sweeping and rapid action. Two of the greatest areas of opportunity are meeting consumer demands for environmental accountability and using technology to transform the way the industry develops products and goes to market," said Rishi.
The study questioned 125 executives from auto companies and suppliers in 15 countries. The study also questioned experts from universities and industry associations. All were asked about their expectations for the auto market in 2020. |
